Summary：
China's corn prices plummeted in late August, with Northeast China’s Hailun Guotoudropping below RMB 1.07/jin (-RMB 0.05/jin from early August) and 8 major processors halting purchases. New-crop prices opened at record lows ( RMB 0.74–0.76/jin for 30% moisture corn in Xinjiang/Heilongjiang), pressured by weak demand and surplus forecasts. Shandong processors cut prices amid high arrivals (>650 trucks/day), while Northeast prices may fall ¥50–100/ton by mid-September. Global markets diverged: Chicago futures rose 1.43%, but EU/Indian demand weakened
Entering the last ten days of August, China's corn market is experiencing a fierce bull-bear game. Leading enterprises such as Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu and Zhaodong COFCO have successively announced the suspension of purchases, while processing plants in Shandong are overwhelmed with orders.
North-South markets cool down simultaneously
Corn prices in Northeast China saw an accelerated decline in late August. The purchase price of Suihua Haotian in Heilongjiang has dropped to 1.095 yuan/jin (approx. $0.151/lb), and Hailun Guotou even fell below 1.07 yuan/jin (approx. $0.148/lb), down nearly 0.05 yuan/jin (approx. $0.007/lb) from the start of the month. Enterprises such as Jilin Xintianlong and Gongzhuling COFCO also joined the ranks of suspending purchases, with 8 leading processing enterprises in Northeast China suspending bulk purchases within three days. Some farmers, to avoid risks, have begun to sell their old grain at low prices.
In the Shandong market, the purchase price of Hengren Industry and Trade dropped to 1.2 yuan/jin (approx. $0.166/lb), and Chengwu Daze Cheng even cut the price by 24 yuan in a single day, falling to 1.225 yuan/jin (approx. $0.169/lb). Prices of old and new corn are accelerating convergence, that is, the price gap between new and old corn is constantly narrowing, further intensifying the wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
New crop opening price hits a new low, enterprises layout low-price purchases in advance
Yicha County in Xinjiang quoted 0.75 yuan/jin (approx. $0.104/lb) for 30% moisture wet grain, and Shihezi Zhonghe was even as low as 0.74 yuan/jin (approx. $0.102/lb), significantly lower than the 0.8-0.85 yuan/jin (approx. $0.110-$0.117/lb) in the same period last year. Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu subsequently locked the price of 30% moisture wet grain at 0.76 yuan/jin (approx. $0.105/lb), further confirming the market expectation of a "low opening" for new crops.
Leading enterprises collectively suspended purchases and cut prices, creating panic in the old grain market to force grassroots to sell inventory at low prices, which can not only reduce raw material costs but also free up price space. Data shows that the cost of new grain is expected to be 0.15-0.2 yuan/jin (approx. $0.021-$0.028/lb) lower than that of old grain, which is strongly attractive to deep processing enterprises.
Regional market differentiation, policy support signals emerge
In the overall downward market, regional differences are still obvious. Xinjiang corn has become a recent hotspot due to its price advantage, and grain points around Ningxia have been transferring goods to Xinjiang, driving local grain prices to stabilize at 1,900 yuan/ton (approx. $262.2/ton) (14% moisture).
COFCO Tongliao Direct Warehouse auctioned 1,342 tons of 2022-produced corn on August 25, adopting the "automobile plate price" delivery model to accelerate the circulation of old grain. Earlier, on August 20, COFCO system sold 9,566 tons of corn through competitive bidding, with 8,566 tons transacted, a transaction rate of 90%.
Market sentiment diverges, short-term game will continue
The divergence in sentiment in the current corn market is becoming increasingly obvious. The short-selling camp is represented by leading enterprises such as Xiangyu and COFCO, which bet on new crop bumper harvests and import supplements, and continue to release negative signals through suspending purchases and cutting prices.
Some enterprises have begun to quietly stock up. Enterprises such as Shandong Fuyang Biology and Heyang Biology have bucked the trend and raised their purchase prices by 6-10 yuan/jin (approx. $0.001-$0.001/lb), reflecting the marginal recovery of downstream feed orders.
For growers, as corn purchase prices in some areas have approached the planting cost line, traders should speed up the clearance of old grain, and farmers need to pay attention to policy trends in September to avoid blindly following the trend of selling.
As the listing of new grain enters the countdown, the bull-bear game in the corn market is entering a critical stage. In the short term, enterprise price cuts and grassroots selling may cause prices to continue to decline, but the possibility of policy support after excessive declines is also rising. The quality report after the opening of new grain in September, COFCO's purchase actions, and the actual impact of rainfall in Northeast China will become the three key variables determining the market trend.
More information can be found at CCM Corn Products China Monthly Report.
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